Technical analysis of currencies and an overview of the euro against the US dollar May 5, 2017

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technical analysis of currencies; The euro jumped to its highest level in six months at the end of the week's trading, affected by the decline of the US dollar against other major currencies, despite the US' release of its monthly non-farm jobs report, which was positive.

During Friday's trading, the US dollar fell against many other major currencies, after the Reserve Bank of New York reduced its forecast for US economic growth rates during the second quarter of this year to reach below 2%, and attributed this to the decline in its expectations for the activity of the industrial sector.

The decline of the US dollar pushed the euro to a six-month high, in addition to market optimism about the victory of the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron in the final round of the French presidential elections.

Currently, the euro is trading against the US dollar at the level of 1.0998 from the opening level of the session at 1.0981, the pair recorded the highest level at 1.100, while the lowest level was recorded at 1.0951.

US releases strong non-farm payrolls report

Today, the US Department of Labor issued its monthly report on non-agricultural jobs for the month of April, as it added about 211,000 jobs, an increase from the month of March by about 79 thousand jobs, and this data exceeded the monthly average of jobs estimated at 185 thousand jobs. Employment increases in the leisure and hospitality sector, the professional services sector and business services.

The report also showed a decline in the unemployment rate by 0.1% to its lowest level since May 2007, and this decline indicates a rise in employment rates, and the labor force participation rate declined to 62.9% after recording its highest level in 11 months at 63% in the previous month.

These strong data for the labor sector are a strong indicator that supports the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates, despite the limited growth in wages, and the bank’s indication that the decline in the growth rate of the US economy during the first quarter of this year is temporary, and the bank also affirmed its optimism at the rate of growth of the economy during the coming period. Especially since the labor sector data is still strong.

It is noteworthy that the Reserve Bank met this week and agreed to keep interest rates at their current levels unchanged.

On the other hand, average hourly wages rose in April by 7 cents, or 0.3%, and the annual increase declined to 2.5%, its lowest level since August 2016. However, there are indications that wage growth is accelerating at the same time. Which improves the data of the labor sector.

Currency technical analysis and an overview of the EUR/USD pair EURUSD

The euro-dollar pair is trading at the level of 1.0995, where the price rebounded towards the upside, bypassing the pivotal resistance level in conjunction with the presence of the Fibo line 38, as shown in the graphic.

Currency technical analysis

Trading is now taking place above the level of the average moving indicator line, and both Stochastic and MACD indicator are showing a positive crossover towards the bullish trend on the daily time frame.

Therefore, the price is expected to continue the bullish trend to target 1.1055 in the near term




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Mohamed Abdel Khaleq

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